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The world is on the brink of financial meltdown, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last night. His bleak warning came as finance ministers tried to calm the frenzy in markets that saw share prices crash by more than 20% last week.
Separately, the IMF’s chief economist predicted that shares could slump by another 20% before stabilising. G7 finance ministers pledged to take all necessary steps to support the banking system and stave off an economic slump.
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the IMF, warned that the measures so far “have not yet achieved the goal of stabilising markets and bolstering confidence”.
He said: “Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest US-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown.” Countries would need to take further measures, including interest rate cuts and steps to bolster the banks.
Olivier Blanchard, his chief economist, said stock markets had further to fall. “At the worst, the governments will need another few weeks to make the right assessment and the stock exchanges could fall by another 20%; then there will be a turnaround,” he said.
The warnings came as G7 finance ministers, including Alistair Darling, met George Bush at the White House. “We are in this together,” the president said. “We will come through it together.” Other experts warned that the instability was likely to continue.
Mario Draghi, governor of the Bank of Italy and chairman of the Financial Stability Forum, which advises the leading economies, said he was “amazed” by what was happening and that it was “very difficult” to see the end of the crisis.
“I don’t have my crystal ball here,” he said. The panic in the stock markets was partly due to the “root psychology of major investors all over the world. You are not going to change that in a day”.
Simon Johnson, until this year the IMF’s chief economist, said he was disappointed the G7 had not produced a fully worked-out plan to fight a slump. “The financial system just got nuked and they don’t understand the full extent of it,” he said.
George Magnus, senior economic adviser at UBS, said stabilising the system was still possible but that countries had to act fast: “The most charitable response is that they have set out a framework and we will see countries filling in the details over the next three to four days. If that happens we could still be okay.”
Gordon Brown will travel to Paris today to urge European leaders to copy the British bailout programme and agree a Europe-wide plan to “recapitalise” struggling banks by taking equity stakes in them. America said this weekend it plans to do that.
In an unusual move, President Nicolas Sarkozy has invited Brown to join a meeting of eurozone heads of government to explain the merits of the UK model. A source close to the French presidency said eurozone leaders would take Britain’s initiative as a reference. “There are two competing models,” he said. “The American model, which no one wishes to draw inspiration from, and the British model. This is what everyone is talking about.”
The prime minister will first meet Sarkozy, Jose Manuel Barroso, president of the European commission, and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. Brown will then make his pitch to the leaders of the 15 countries in the euro currency area.
A spokesman for No 10 said: “This is clearly an important moment. It is very important that Europe acts together and works together. What we have set out is a comprehensive plan which tackles the three issues of liquidity, funding and capital. Any action must now be taken internationally.”
Today’s meeting is the last opportunity for European leaders to show they are taking the necessary steps to support the banks before the markets open tomorrow. Germany has indicated that it is prepared to adopt elements of the British plan by putting capital into its banks. One sticking point may be the lack of a comprehensive guarantee for the banks.
Tomorrow the first of the British banks to be bailed out by the government’s £400 billion rescue plan will reveal how much money they want. Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), which has seen its market value fall to under £12 billion, is to ask the government to underwrite a £15 billion cash call. HBOS, Britain’s biggest provider of mortgages, is demanding up to £10 billion, while Lloyds TSB and Barclays require £7 billion and £3 billion respectively.
Although existing investors will have the right to put up the new capital, and some may do so, the rescue could leave the government owning 70% of HBOS and 50% of RBS. Crisis talks were taking place this weekend between the Treasury, the Financial Services Authority, the Bank of England and the heads of the four retail banks to decide final details.
A YouGov poll for The Sunday Times suggests the crisis has boosted Brown’s popularity. Support for Labour has risen by seven points in the past month to 33%, its highest since January. The Tories are on 43%, down three points.
The prime minister’s rating is at its highest since March, while he and Darling are regarded by voters as more trusted to deal with the crisis than David Cameron and George Osborne.
Allies of Brown have suggested this could be his “Falklands moment”, a reference to Margaret Thatcher’s rise from huge unpopularity in the early 1980s as a result of the successful war with Argentina.
Additional reporting: Nicola Smith
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Let us all ask ourselves, what countries have pulled their assests from the market? Lets see what shift the oil rich nations have played in this global failure. This is much more than bad loans people.
Jeanne, Holland, USA
Wonderful. The IMF runs through the hotel at shouting "FIRE" - and the guests get out as fast as they can.
It seems to me that CDS's are the main problem. They should be declared void by ALL governments, and we should regulate EVERYTHING!!!!! Bankers, brokers etc are far too stupid!
Michael Sims, London, United Kingdom
But if we did what you said Laura...the system might work and the crooks might lose some of their money!
Eric Skelton, Cardiff, Wales
Here in Australia I've been wondering why the prices of homes
have rising for the past 10 years, now i know why.
These financial ballons were too good to be true!...time for some reality.
Edwin, Melbourne, Australia
We need Conservative Goverments World Wide meanwhile we need the removal and banning of CD'S and Derivatives by Banks this is potentially more catastrophic than toxic assets that have some value vs CDS which are equivalent to junk bonds ...I am afraid the market will move down another 20%
Alex, Hope Island , Australia
I think another 20% fall of stock markets is on the conservative side based on what even IMF predict's most probably a market melt down
Lec Neli, London, UK
Stop resisting.
Stop panicking.
Start planning adaption strategies.
Change your mindsets.
Leave the markets alone.
Let them do what they have to and find their own equilibrium.
Keep the governments out.
Stop them spending taxpayer money on bailing out failures.
It's natural.
Let it be.
Laura Roberts, London, UK
correct the IMf isassistign to the panic and wishes to make it more alaming ? It is just like 2001 SEpt but then it was terror of another sort and afterards we still know littlewhi knew what when and who did what for whom?
the same can be said re the various statements,the timimg is suspicious
David Thompson, London,
The IMF has just given a BIG market buy signal, fill your boots.
John Jip, Malaga, Spain
Amazing! Brown thinks this is his Falklands moment! He created this mess by changing the regulation of banks to the FSA. Previously, UK banks were frequently told by the Bank of England to restrict property lending. Under the FSA banks were allowed to lend to borrowers in the USA who had no income!
TonyG, Newark, UK
The IMF have been warning Brown for the last several years of financial problems because of the growing debt (both govt. generated and personal credit growth). These warnings were totally ignored be by Calamity Brown. He is too much in awe of his own financial expertise and self defication.
M. Cawdery, Craigavon, Co UK, EU
Got to love the IMF, more scare mongering, much the same as running into a packed movie theater and yelling fire.
This seems like a self fulfilling prophecy, and if everyone is panicked enough then maybe we'll get to another 50% drop.
Hard Logic, Sydney, Australia
For the past decade the monetary 'value' of everything has been based on a debt bubble. Now that the bubble has burst the values are returning to normality, hence shares prices as well as house prices are returning the levels of a decade ago.
Paul, Coventry,
SOLUTION: NATIONALIZE: Banks, Utilities companies, Rail companies (bring back British Rail) Free Transport, and increase the petrol prices. Remember privatization was a wrong move. Call it what ever you like whether Communism, Socialism or liberalism. But needs solid leadership.
Harish, Croydon, UK
Next low for the DOW is 7380. If that low does not stop the blood flowing, then next low will be 6350. The USA has two candidates running for president that are totally obtuse in the financial and economic spectrum. So. look for more dow drops here.
wayneo, boston, usa
Why doesn't the IMF put a sock in it?
SGA, Tampa, USA
the stock market falls are as much to do with investors now believing the markets are overpriced (especially when you take into account the risk of recession). bank lending again is critical to the real economy but won't per se cause markets to rebound.
stephen, china, china
The IMF are recommending rate cuts. How will interest rate cuts encourage one bank lend to another if banks fear that borrowers will go bankrupt? It doesn't matter whether it is 0% if the capital sum is lost when the borrower collapses. Perhaps setting the rate at -30% might work?
Simon, London, UK
Derek, Cape Town....
I agree. Also, I haven't heard anything about the potential CDS exposure for the collapsed Icelandic banks. Or indeed the CDS exposure if the Icelandic government defaults. The $65 trillion CDS nuclear megabomb may be in the process of detonating.
Simon, Epsom, UK
The fact that even after all this time there is no fully-developed plan is totally as expected.
McBroon, BoE, FSA and Treasury never had any idea how to actually implement a plan of action properly to give the desired results, without unintended consequences.
In other words, they are incompetent.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Why is gold not at $2,000-$5,000/ounce? The market is much worse that it was in 87' and gold is not even close to an inflation adjusted price - why is that?
Greg, New York, USA
and thanks to all the stars that none of the world leaders are getting on their knees to pray or sending its peoples to temples to do the same! your comment Carl is sooooo 1st centuary it made me weep just about. No wonder we are all in this mess!
Anita, Adelaide, Australia
Hard to talk about confidence when it is computers with pre-set prices issuing sell or buy instructions. And the people talking about confidence are the same ones who got us in this trouble.....
Paul, Toronto, Canada
No Gordon, we are not in this together. You and your predecessor and your flawed and bankrupted ideology will result in your caste and fellow travellers feeling the consequence of decades of studied neglect. For every distressed seller, there is a buyer. Bring on the lemmings. Bring on November 4.
Alberto Jorge, Perth, Australia
The amazing thing to me is not a single world leader has suggested we ask God for his help. How the USA has changed. We have become too proud to be humble and now God is going to humble us and the world. Maybe the one world antichrist will bring his economic solution - - 666.
Carl Broggi, Seabrook, SC, USA
Like how Bush says "We're in it together' when he's in trouble, yet was happy to go it alone when it came to the Kyoto treaty and the support of the UN over the Iraq war.
Pat, LA, US
Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself: FDRs First Inaugural Address
Joon Sang Yu, Seoul, Korea
What, me worry? Looking at King Dollar gaining strength by the day; and crude at $78/bbl (gasoline is $2.97/gal in NJ), we are poised for an explosive rebound. The Dow indicated capitulation ~8200, so my biggest fear is overcompensation by Paulson and Bernanke, igniting inflation.
Dan Schwartz, Sayreville, NJ, US of A
Brown's wasted billions on public spending funded by mortgaging Britain will come back to haunt him. Laughable to suggest this is a Falklands moment. More like a short lived bounce.
Rahul, London,
This is going to get...interesting. Yesterday's crystalisation of Lehman bond defaults, at $365bn, could trigger a round of defaults on an incomprehensible scale. There are some 350 counterparties involved. I hope I'm wrong, but the past 3 weeks could just have been the hors d'ouevre. Stand by....
Derek, Cape Town, SA
And they would know why?
Desmond Taylor, Houston, USA,TX
Its all getting more "1984" by the day, isn't it?
What a terrifying world to live in!
Martyn Taylor, Swindon, England (wot's left of it)
Brown created this problem by his continued refusal to encourage saving, constant reliance on debt to finance his public spending splurge and encouragement of the investment bankers in London that created this problem. Now he wants the credit for attempting to avert the inevitable disaster?
Bruce Mcaaw, Grantham,
The markets do have further to fall. Consumer spending is what drives the economy, not the banking system. Banks lending to each other isn't going to get people back into shops.
Doesn't anyone learn from history?
John, London,